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assertion

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z09jUbDwd_c2OxGI9KUPZmLszxUlLVOyzt3M/assertion

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🚩 Minted in Nanopublication

Iberian thermal-niche-exceedance constellation — Bombus (Soroye 2020) + Lacertidae (Sinervo 2010) un... Research-Synthesis comment... approve/disapprove... edit as derived nanopublication... create new with same template...

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type is a https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/Research-Synthesis Research-Synthesis .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/dc/terms/subject has subject http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q107482001

Q107482001

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/dc/terms/subject has subject http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q125928

Q125928

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/dc/terms/subject has subject http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q12837

Q12837

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/dc/terms/subject has subject http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q139684181

Q139684181

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/dc/terms/subject has subject http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q25407

Q25407

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/dc/terms/subject has subject http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q27532

Q27532

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/dc/terms/subject has subject http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q5629401

Q5629401

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/dc/terms/subject has subject http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q7150

Q7150

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label has the label (this is a literal)

"Iberian thermal-niche-exceedance constellation — Bombus (Soroye 2020) + Lacertidae (Sinervo 2010) under Destination Earth Climate DT SSP3-7.0"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasSynthesisDescription has the synthesis conclusion (this is a literal)

"Thermal-niche-exceedance replicates as a class of mechanism across pollinators and ectotherms in Iberia, but operational extinction projections depend on parameter choices and time horizon in ways the source papers' headline figures do not surface. The two-taxon constellation shows: (i) Soroye 2020's TEI-based extirpation mechanism for Iberian Bombus is substrate-robust at fit time (GLMM coefficient sc_TEI_delta = +0.454 at HEALPix nside=64, +0.347 at nside=128 — both within ~30 % of the published continental +0.479) but grid-coupled at projection time for low-N species, surfaced operationally by the substrate-sensitivity sibling chain; (ii) Sinervo 2010's h_r mechanism for Iberian Lacertidae predicts zero local extinction at DestinE-reachable horizons (2020-2039) under family-mean priors, and only ~3 % at compound worst-plausible priors (Iberolacerta T_b + May-June reproductive window), with the per-species substrate-sensitivity diagnostic confirming substrate-robust rankings for well-sampled species (Spearman rho = 0.951 for n_cells >= 10). Across both taxa, three constellation-level claims emerge: (a) the mechanism class transfers cross-taxon when properly operationalised, but operational predictions are prior-conditional in ways the original papers' single-figure headlines do not surface; (b) DestinE-reachable horizons (2020-2039) sit below the activation thresholds for the lizards mechanism, so Sinervo's 24 % / 46 % / 2050 / 2080 projections cannot be tested under current archive coverage — the gap between near-term-DestinE and source-paper-projection horizons is itself a finding about the operational reach of climate-digital-twin replications; (c) the per-species rare-species-ranking grid-coupling caveat (Lobo et al. 2007; Hurlbert & Jetz 2007) manifests differently across taxa — as ranking-shuffle at non-zero rates in the Bombus chain, as signal-collapse below threshold in the Lacertidae chain — both consistent with the established literature, neither novel."

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasRecommendationDescription has the recommendation (this is a literal)

"For practitioners testing thermal-niche-exceedance mechanisms in new taxa or under new climate-digital-twin archives: (1) Report sensitivity matrices, not single-point headline figures. A 2 x 3 cross-product of T_b prior and reproductive-window choice (or analogous parameter axes) surfaces prior-conditional behaviour that single-figure headlines hide. This applies even when the baseline result is zero — the value of the matrix is showing the boundary of the parameter space where the mechanism activates. (2) Run a substrate-sensitivity diagnostic at two HEALPix resolutions whenever per-species rankings are reported. Use the NESTED bit-shift parent = pix >> 2 for the downsample (no re-projection, free of regridding error). Report Spearman rho separately for well-sampled species (n_cells >= 10) and the low-N subset; the latter is expected to be grid-coupled per Lobo 2007 / Hurlbert & Jetz 2007, but the diagnostic confirms it operationally for the specific dataset. (3) Honestly scope CiTO citation type to the projection horizon. Use `cito:extends` (not `cito:confirms` / `disputes`) when the digital-twin archive does not cover the source paper's projection horizon. The mechanism's behaviour at reachable horizons is a separate Outcome from the source paper's headline projection; conflating them produces over-claiming. (4) Publish a cross-taxon constellation Synthesis whenever two or more chains share a mechanism class and a regional / temporal scope. The constellation-level statement (this nanopub) is qualitatively different from any single chain's Outcome, and the cross-chain consistency or divergence is itself a finding. (5) Mirror prior chains' substrate, env, and pinning conventions wherever possible. The Bombus constellation established HEALPix-NESTED nside=128 as the DestinE-native substrate and a specific environment.yml pinning philosophy (lower-bounds + arviz<0.22 ceiling). The lizards chain reused both with no modification, which made the cross-replication composition trivial — the constellation Synthesis benefits operationally from this consistency."

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasConditionsDescription has the conditions (this is a literal)

"Region: Iberian Peninsula (Spain, Portugal, Andorra, Gibraltar — bbox roughly -10°W to 4°E, 35°N to 44°N). Climate forcing: Destination Earth Climate Digital Twin SSP3-7.0 IFS-NEMO at HEALPix nside=128 native, 2020-2039 archive coverage. Single climate realisation (no ensemble). Daily-aggregated from 4-times-daily 2m temperature snapshots. Taxa: heliothermic / diurnal-active ectotherms (Lacertidae lizards via Sinervo 2010) and warm-adapted social insects (Bombus pollinators via Soroye 2020). The mechanism class (thermal-niche exceedance under climate warming as a driver of local extirpation/extinction) is conserved across the two replications; the operational instantiation differs (h_r threshold for Lacertidae, TEI-delta GLMM coefficient for Bombus). Methods: deterministic h_r threshold comparison (Lacertidae chain) and Bayesian GLMM TEI fit (Bombus chain). Both implemented in Python (xarray + healpix-geo + cfgrib + pygbif) with Snakefile pipelines, MIT-licensed and Zenodo-archived. Both follow the same FORRT chain shape (Quote → AIDA → Claim → Replication Study → Replication Outcome → CiTO Citation + Research Software). Time period of validity: 2020-2039 only for the projection-horizon component; 2026-05 for the FAIR-archive / nanopub-network state. Future DestinE archive expansion may enable testing of Sinervo's 2050 / 2080 horizons. Pinning: HEALPix NESTED ordering throughout; geographic data uses healpix-geo (NOT healpy, per DOMAIN.md); arviz<0.22 for PyMC compatibility; numpy 2.x; pymc 5.25+."

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasLimitationsDescription has the limitations (this is a literal)

"Five limitations bounding the synthesis statement, ordered by interpretive importance: (1) Single climate realisation. Both chains used a single DestinE Climate DT SSP3-7.0 IFS-NEMO realisation. Interannual variability in extreme-heat-day frequency (which dominates the Lacertidae signal under S3a) cannot be separated from forced trend on a single realisation. Cross-realisation ensemble would refine the constellation's quantitative statements about decadal direction and tail behaviour. (2) Cross-taxon generalisation. Two taxa (Bombus, Lacertidae) is a small cross-taxon sample. The constellation conclusion ("mechanism class transfers but predictions are prior-conditional") is supported by these two cases but should be re-tested as further taxa join the constellation. Candidate next-taxon chains: amphibians (Iberian Salamandridae / Discoglossidae), other diurnal heliotherms (Iberian Anguidae if their physiology is in scope), other warm-adapted insects (Iberian Apidae beyond Bombus). (3) Family-level priors. Both replications used family-level priors as the baseline. The Lacertidae chain explicitly flagged species-specific T_b (Iberian Podarcis / Iberolacerta / Timon) as deferred to a future iteration; the Bombus chain similarly used family-level GLMM coefficients rather than species-specific refits. Constellation-level conclusions about prior-conditional behaviour would tighten under species-specific refinement. (4) DestinE-horizon limit. The 2020-2039 archive coverage does not extend to Sinervo's 2050 / 2080 headline-year projections nor to the multi-decadal climate-trajectory regimes where both source papers' mechanisms ramp up. The constellation's statement that "mechanism does not trigger at near-term horizons" is honest for the reachable archive but does not preclude triggering at longer horizons. Re-running the constellation against an expanded DestinE archive when 2050+ becomes available is the natural follow-up. (5) Sub-daily climate-twin access. Sinervo SOM Equation S2 is operationally daily-Tmax-based, but the mechanism's underlying physiology is intra-day (basking-window thermal restriction). The Polytope sub-daily probe across both chains returned "credentials absent — fallback unused" status; the sinusoidal Tmin-Tmax diurnal-cycle reconstruction was scoped but not exercised. If sub-daily access becomes available, the lizards mechanism may activate at lower compound-prior thresholds than reported here."

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/spar/cito/isSupportedBy is supported by https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RA-GY814xx...

RA-GY814xx

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/spar/cito/isSupportedBy is supported by https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RA1q6c0fG2...

RA1q6c0fG2

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/spar/cito/isSupportedBy is supported by https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RA5TJVZ0_5...

RA5TJVZ0_5

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/spar/cito/isSupportedBy is supported by https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAKH9XeZn3...

RAKH9XeZn3

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/spar/cito/isSupportedBy is supported by https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAPw01nGqr...

RAPw01nGqr

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/spar/cito/isSupportedBy is supported by https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAfdV1yB1J...

RAfdV1yB1J

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://purl.org/spar/cito/isSupportedBy is supported by https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAzhqiFNu8...

RAzhqiFNu8

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

http://schema.org/endDate was completed on (this is a literal)

"2026-05-15"

(xsd:date) .

This is the identifier for the assertion of this nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z.../assertion The assertion above http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo

wasAttributedTo

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920

Anne Fouilloux

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920

Anne Fouilloux

http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name has the name (this is a literal)

"Anne Fouilloux"

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z... This nanopublication http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label has the label (this is a literal)

"Iberian thermal-niche-exceedance constellation — Bombus (Soroye 2020) + Lacertidae (Sinervo 2010) under Destination Earth Climate DT SSP3-7.0"

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z... This nanopublication date and time when the nanopublication was created http://purl.org/dc/terms/created was created on (this is a literal)

"2026-05-18T08:27:23.814Z"

(xsd:dateTime) .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z... This nanopublication links to the assertion template that was used to create this nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromTemplate was created from the assertion template https://w3id.org/np/RApmrqOEr4...

RApmrqOEr4

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z... This nanopublication the nanopublication consists of an introduction of the given resource http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces introduces This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...xceedance-constellation-iberia

mediterranean-thermal-niche-exceedance-constellation-iberia

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget has as target This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z... this nanopublication .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm has the algorithm (this is a literal)

"RSA"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey has the public key (this is a literal)

"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"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature has the signature (this is a literal)

"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"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy is signed by https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920

Anne Fouilloux

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z... This nanopublication http://purl.org/nanopub/x/wasCreatedAt was created at https://platform.sciencelive4all.org

platform.sciencelive4all.org

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z...

this nanopublication

http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator

creator

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920

Anne Fouilloux

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAcDYOu65z...

this nanopublication

http://purl.org/dc/terms/license

license

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

4.0

Anne Fouilloux, 18 May 2026, 08:27:23 UTC

Raw formats

Full nanopublication: TriG(txt), JSON-LD(txt), N-Quads(txt), XML(txt)

Assertions only: Turtle(txt), JSON-LD(txt), N-Triples(txt), RDF/XML(txt)