RAa4QR41Ho (explore)

RAa4QR41Ho

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Hot9zxujcrCyTo82Ij7oaw_6z8zk8NxDqoJFM

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📌 Nanopublication

TEI-based extirpation mechanism: HEALPix nside=128 substrate extension on Iberian Bombus (full GLMM ... FORRT-Replication-Outcome comment... approve/disapprove... edit as derived nanopublication... create new with same template...

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type is a https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/FORRT-Replication-Outcome FORRT Replication Outcome .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label has the label (this is a literal)

"TEI-based extirpation mechanism: HEALPix nside=128 substrate extension on Iberian Bombus (full GLMM refit; SSP3-7.0 projection)"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/isOutcomeOf is an outcome of https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...x-nside128-substrate-extension

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasOutcomeRepository has the repository https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20113781

doi:10.5281/zenodo.20113781

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

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"2026-05-09"

(xsd:date) .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasValidationStatus has the validation status https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/Validated

validated

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasConclusionDescription has the conclusion (this is a literal)

"This repository extends the canonical Iberian Bombus replication (weatherxbiodiversity-projection at HEALPix nside=64) by refitting Soroye et al.'s (2020) GLMM at HEALPix nside=128 — the native pixelisation of DestinE Climate DT IFS-NEMO standard, with cells ~46 km across (4× finer than the canonical sibling). The headline GLMM coefficient on standardised TEI_delta at nside=128 is +0.347 (95% HDI [+0.139, +0.533]) — positive, large, credibly above zero. Compared with the canonical CEA fit (+0.479) and the nside=64 sibling (+0.454), all three estimates are within ±30 percent, sign-aligned, and order-of-magnitude consistent. Soroye's central biological claim — that thermal-niche exceedance increases extirpation probability — replicates at three independent spatial substrates spanning ~46–100 km cell resolution. The Tier-2 SSP3-7.0 projection (DestinE Climate DT, 2020–2029 + 2030–2039 horizons) at substrate-matched nside=128 shows the same drift-toward-niche-edge pattern as the nside=64 sibling: mean future TEI rises systematically across most species, but no species crosses TEI > 1 (Soroye's actual extirpation threshold) at any currently-occupied cell over the next 15 years. The 2030–2039 horizon is the early-warning period under SSP3-7.0, not the extirpation period itself. Per-species ranking at this substrate is reported via the protocol established in the methodological sibling repo weatherxbiodiversity-substrate-sensitivity: filter to species with at least 10 occupied cells AND use main-effects-only η at projection time. At this filter, the cross-substrate Spearman correlation with the nside=64 sibling is +0.97 (mid-term horizon) — the per-species ranking IS substrate-stable for species above the cell-count threshold. The substrate-stable highest-risk Iberian species at nside=128 are B. humilis, B. muscorum, B. ruderarius (matching the nside=64 sibling's top 3); the lowest-risk are B. terrestris, B. pascuorum, B. pratorum."

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasEvidenceDescription has the evidence (this is a literal)

"TIER 1 — historical fit at HEALPix nside=128 (1901–2014 CRU TS 3.24.01 from Soroye Figshare; GBIF Iberian Bombus occurrences via own download DOI; full GLMM refit at native nside=128). GLMM headline coefficient sc_TEI_delta: - HEALPix nside=128 (~46 km, this run): +0.347 (95% HDI [+0.139, +0.533]) - HEALPix nside=64 (~92 km, sibling): +0.454 (95% HDI [+0.130, +0.751]) - CEA (~100 km, canonical): +0.479 All three within ±30 percent. Sign, magnitude, and HDI mutually consistent. Verdict: substrate-robust across the three pixelisations. Cross-fit sanity check at nside=128: variational-Bayes via statsmodels BinomialBayesMixedGLM reports +0.347 ± 0.079 (VB SD), consistent with the bambi/PyMC NUTS posterior to within VB-underestimation noise. See results/headline_statistic_healpix.json. TIER 2 — SSP3-7.0 projection at substrate-matched nside=128 (DestinE Climate DT, IFS-NEMO standard, native HEALPix nside=128, 2020–2029 + 2030–2039 horizons; no parent-aggregation deviation between fit and projection grids). Mean future TEI per species, 2030–2039 horizon (substrate-invariant physical metric, ρ_Spearman vs nside=64 sibling = +0.66 at n≥1, +0.90 at n≥10): - Most-shifted species (top of ranking): B. humilis, B. muscorum, B. ruderarius - Least-shifted (bottom of ranking): B. terrestris, B. pascuorum, B. pratorum - Same top-3 / bottom-3 as the nside=64 sibling's substrate-stable ranking. Per-species community-mean η under SSP3-7.0 (filtered to n_cells≥10 at both substrates, main-effects-only η — ρ_Spearman vs nside=64 = +0.97 mid-term, +0.96 near-term). Fraction of currently-occupied cells where future TEI exceeds 1.0 at 2030–2039: 0.00 for every studied species at nside=128 — same as the nside=64 sibling. The TEI > 1 threshold is not crossed under SSP3-7.0 over the next 15 years on Iberia. Files: results/headline_statistic_healpix.json (Tier 1), results/projection_headline.json (Tier 2 per-species rank), results/posterior_bambi_healpix.nc (full nside=128 posterior); figures figures/main_result_healpix.png + figures/projection_summary.png. Cross-substrate diagnostic: see weatherxbiodiversity-substrate-sensitivity (DOI to be minted) for the full five-variant Spearman concordance table, per-species η decomposition, and recommended reporting protocol. GitHub repository: https://github.com/annefou/weatherxbiodiversity-projection-nside128"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasConfidenceLevel has the confidence level https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/HighConfidence

high

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasLimitationsDescription has the limitations (this is a literal)

"1. Substrate-coupling at projection time. Per-species ranking under SSP3-7.0 is grid-coupled at the projection step for species observed in fewer than ~10 historical Iberian cells at this substrate (~46 km, nside=128). This affects narrowly-distributed Pyrenean specialists (B. pyrenaeus, B. mucidus, B. mendax, B. wurflenii, B. monticola, B. mesomelas) — precisely the species the public most worries about. The full mechanism, validated and refuted hypotheses, and recommended reporting protocol are documented in the methodological sibling repo weatherxbiodiversity-substrate-sensitivity. The rankings reported in this Outcome are filtered per that diagnostic (n_cells ≥ 10, main-effects-only η at projection time). 2. Reporting on η, not p_extirp. As in the nside=64 sibling, Tier-2 reports the GLMM linear predictor η rather than its logistic transform. Future predictors lie 2–4σ outside the Tier-1 training distribution at this substrate — wider than at nside=64 because per-cell future-period climate deltas have higher within-cell variance at the finer grid. Absolute extirpation probabilities derived from this projection are NOT interpretable as-is. 3. Negative-η species reflect random intercepts, not climate-driven benefit. The GLMM's species random effect dominates the projected η for B. terrestris and B. pascuorum, encoding lower-than-average historical extirpation susceptibility from the 1901–2014 GBIF training data. All climate-driven term contributions are positive for both species at both substrates. The correct reading is "historically robust species, with SSP3-7.0 adding moderate climate forcing on top" — NOT "projected to benefit from SSP3-7.0". 4. Sampling effort held at recent-period mean for the projection — same caveat as the nside=64 sibling. 5. DestinE Climate DT archive coverage. SSP3-7.0 IFS-NEMO archive populated through 2039 only at time of analysis; mid- and end-of-century horizons deferred. 6. Daily Tmax/Tmin from 4-times-daily 2t snapshots — same caveat as the nside=64 sibling. Defensible at decadal mean; biased high on Tmax extremes by an unknown but small amount. 7. tp 1-time-per-day approximation — same caveat as the nside=64 sibling. 8. Why nside=128 and not coarser-aggregated nside=64 at projection time. The canonical nside=64 sibling aggregates DestinE nside=128 data via parent-cell averaging before projection. This Outcome refits the GLMM at native nside=128 to eliminate any cross-substrate aggregation step between fit and projection. Both approaches yield substrate-robust headline coefficients within ±30%, but per-species rankings at the species-cell level differ (see substrate-sensitivity sibling for the exhaustive cross-substrate comparison). 9. Geographic scope. Iberian peninsula only. The same caveat as the nside=64 sibling applies. 10. n_cells distribution at nside=128. Because the cell area is 4× smaller than nside=64, the same physical species range generally translates to ~4× more occupied cells per species. This makes more species cross the n_cells ≥ 10 reliability threshold at nside=128 than at nside=64 (a positive side-effect of the resolution doubling), but the ranking concordance with the canonical nside=64 sibling is what bounds the trustworthy interpretation, not the per-substrate n_cells distribution alone."

This is the identifier for the assertion of this nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho.../assertion The assertion above http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo

wasAttributedTo

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920

Anne Fouilloux

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920

Anne Fouilloux

http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name has the name (this is a literal)

"Anne Fouilloux"

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho... This nanopublication http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label has the label (this is a literal)

"TEI-based extirpation mechanism: HEALPix nside=128 substrate extension on Iberian Bombus (full GLMM refit; SSP3-7.0 projection)"

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho... This nanopublication date and time when the nanopublication was created http://purl.org/dc/terms/created was created on (this is a literal)

"2026-05-11T19:40:25.904Z"

(xsd:dateTime) .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho... This nanopublication links to the assertion template that was used to create this nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromTemplate was created from the assertion template https://w3id.org/np/RA2zljn0Nw...

RA2zljn0Nw

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho... This nanopublication the nanopublication consists of an introduction of the given resource http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces introduces This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/n...e-extension-nside128-validated

soroye2020-iberian-bombus-substrate-extension-nside128-validated

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget has as target This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho... this nanopublication .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm has the algorithm (this is a literal)

"RSA"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey has the public key (this is a literal)

"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"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature has the signature (this is a literal)

"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"

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho.../sig

sig

http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy is signed by https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920

Anne Fouilloux

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho... This nanopublication http://purl.org/nanopub/x/wasCreatedAt was created at https://platform.sciencelive4all.org

platform.sciencelive4all.org

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho...

this nanopublication

http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator

creator

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920

Anne Fouilloux

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAa4QR41Ho...

this nanopublication

http://purl.org/dc/terms/license

license

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

4.0

Anne Fouilloux, 11 May 2026, 19:40:25 UTC

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