@prefix this: . @prefix sub: . @prefix np: . @prefix rdf: . @prefix prov: . @prefix npx: . @prefix dc: . @prefix xsd: . a np:Nanopublication; np:hasAssertion sub:assertion; np:hasProvenance sub:provenance; np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo; dc:created "2026-05-18T07:49:20.829Z"^^xsd:dateTime; dc:creator ; dc:license ; npx:introduces sub:lacertidae-iberia-h-r-replication-2026-v0-1-0; npx:wasCreatedAt ; "Iberian Lacertidae h_r mechanism replication — DestinE 2020-2039"; . sub:lacertidae-iberia-h-r-replication-2026-v0-1-0 a ; "2026-05-16"^^xsd:date; "Iberian Lacertidae h_r mechanism replication — DestinE 2020-2039"; "Under family-mean Lacertidae priors (T_b = 35.4 °C, Sinervo Table 1) and a conservative April-May reproductive window, the Sinervo 2010 h_r mechanism predicts no Iberian Lacertidae local extinction at DestinE-reachable horizons (2020-2039 under SSP3-7.0). Under the worst-plausible compound prior (cool-adapted Iberolacerta T_b = 31 °C and the actual May-June breeding chronology of Iberian Podarcis / Iberolacerta), the mechanism flags 2.88-3.56 % of Lacertidae cell-years — tail-dominated by extreme single years rather than monotonic decadal warming. The DestinE-reachable horizon does not extend to Sinervo's 2050 projection year (Sinervo Table 1: Lacertidae 24.1 % by 2050, 46.0 % by 2080); this Outcome therefore extends rather than confirms or disputes Sinervo's headline number. Four substantive findings: (i) mechanism applicability is prior-conditional — single-axis perturbations of T_b OR window keep the signal at 0 %, only the compound worst-plausible flags cells; (ii) the gap between DestinE-reachable horizons and Sinervo's 2050 / 2080 projection horizons is itself a finding about the operational reach of climate-digital-twin replications; (iii) the mechanism is event-dominated under Iberian conditions, qualitatively different from the mean-thermal-exceedance pattern Soroye et al. 2020 reported for Iberian Bombus under the same DestinE archive; (iv) substrate-sensitivity diagnostic at HEALPix nside=128 vs nside=64 (mirroring Bombus chain-3 pattern) confirms ranking robustness for well-sampled species (Spearman ρ = 0.951 for the n_cells ≥ 10 subset of 25 species) but is degenerate for the n_cells < 10 subset of 22 species (zero variance at both substrates under S3a — the low-N signal collapses to zero below the family threshold, which is itself the operational substrate-coupling signature at the Lacertidae × 2020-2039 horizon combination examined here)."; ; """Sensitivity matrix (lizard-biology priors × DestinE Climate DT SSP3-7.0 daily Tmax, 2020-2039): CONFIG 2020s 2030s max(daily-mean h_r) N cell-years > 3.1 h Baseline (family T_b=35.4, Apr-May) 0.00 % 0.00 % 0.46 h 0 S1a: family T_b, May-Jun window 0.00 % 0.00 % 2.61 h 0 S1b: family T_b, Apr-Jun window 0.00 % 0.00 % 1.75 h 0 S2: Iberolacerta T_b=31, Apr-May 0.00 % 0.00 % 1.88 h 0 S3a: Iberolacerta T_b=31, May-Jun 3.56 % 2.88 % 5.60 h 170 S3b: Iberolacerta T_b=31, Apr-Jun 0.30 % 0.08 % 3.82 h 10 Geographical extent: 264 Lacertidae presence cells at HEALPix nside=128 across the Iberian Peninsula, drawn from a GBIF download of 136,210 Lacertidae × Iberia occurrence records since 1900 (DOI 10.15468/dl.rh4rfn). 47 Lacertidae species in scope; 22 of 47 species are low-N (n_cells < 10) and flagged in the per-species CSV as grid-coupled per Lobo et al. 2007 / Hurlbert & Jetz 2007 — interpret per-species rates for low-N species with the published rare-species ranking caveat in mind. Threshold (3.1 h) is the Sinervo Table 1 Lacertidae family-calibrated h_r; mean is the daily-mean over the reproductive window per the SOM Eq. S2 conditional clamping h_r[T_e > T_b_preferred] = 0.74 × (T_max − T_b) + 6.1. Reference Sinervo Table 1 Lacertidae values: 3.4 % local extinction by 2009 (observed-period baseline), 24.1 % by 2050, 46.0 % by 2080 — none of these horizons is reachable by the current DestinE Climate DT archive. Substrate-sensitivity diagnostic (mirrors Bombus chain-3 pattern, S3a config): Spearman ρ on per-species 2020s local-extinction rates between HEALPix nside=128 (DestinE native) and HEALPix nside=64 (downsampled via NESTED bit-shift parent = pix >> 2). Full set: ρ = 0.891 (n=47). Well-sampled (n_cells ≥ 10): ρ = 0.951 (n=25). Low-N (n_cells < 10): n/a (n=22; zero variance at both substrates because all 22 species' rates collapse to 0 % at this signal level). Per-species substrate-comparison table archived as a supplementary CSV within the cited Research Software deposit. Five figures accompany this Outcome (rendered by the cited Research Software, archived alongside it in the Zenodo deposit): a sensitivity-matrix heatmap making the prior-conditional behaviour visible across all six T_b × window combinations; a per-species lollipop under the S3a config (well-sampled species topping the 2020s ranking: Podarcis virescens n=63 ~5 %, Psammodromus occidentalis n=49, Podarcis vaucheri n=41, Acanthodactylus erythrurus n=145, Podarcis carbonelli n=10; the baseline-config variant is omitted as redundant because all species sit at 0 %); a substrate-sensitivity scatter (Bombus-chain-3-pattern, nside=128 vs nside=64 per species, S3a config); and two Iberia maps of decadal-mean daily-mean h_r (2020s and 2030s) rendered as HEALPix nside=128 NESTED tiles via the EOPF-DGGS healpix-plot library. Github repository: https://github.com/annefou/weatherxbiodiversity-lizards"""; """Five limitations, ordered by interpretive importance: (1) Tail-dominated event structure. The h_r > threshold signal under the only configuration that flags cells (S3a) is concentrated in a small number of single-year extremes — 170 cell-years out of 5,280 total. The 2020s > 2030s direction (3.56 > 2.88 %) is not a monotonic-cooling anomaly but reflects interannual variability in extreme-heat-day frequency on a single DestinE realisation. Reporting both decades as point estimates (rather than as a 2020s → 2030s trend statement) is honest; reading the difference as a trend would over-interpret a single climate realisation. (2) Prior-conditional mechanism applicability. The headline finding depends on lizard-biology parameter choices in a way the source paper's single 24 % / 2050 figure does not surface. Single-axis perturbations (T_b alone OR window alone) keep the signal at zero; only the compound worst-plausible combination flags cells. Defensible alternative parameterisations (Iberian-specific species T_b records from Carretero, Monasterio, Spanish herpetological literature; species-specific breeding chronologies for Pyrenean Iberolacerta vs Mediterranean Timon) would refine this — explicitly deferred to a v0.2.0 iteration. (3) Projection-horizon mismatch. DestinE Climate DT exposes 2020-2039 in the current archive; Sinervo's headline projections are at 2050 and 2080. The Outcome cannot speak to the headline 24 % / 46 % numbers directly — only verify that the mechanism does not predict premature collapse at near-term horizons (and it does not, under any family-mean configuration). Sinervo's 2050 / 2080 figures remain testable only under future DestinE archive expansion. (4) Reproductive-window heuristic. Default April-May matches Sinervo SOM's \"2 months in the temperate zone\" generic guidance but not the Iberian-Lacertidae-specific breeding chronology, which extends into May-June for most Iberian Podarcis / Iberolacerta species. The May-June and April-June sensitivities (S1a, S1b, S3a, S3b) are stress-tests against this heuristic; the April-May baseline is the conservative single-point estimate. (5) Daily Tmax vs hourly trace. SOM Eq. S2 is parameterised in daily Tmax and computed daily; the analysis reported here applies the same form. A sub-daily Polytope-access probe in the data-download step of the cited Research Software returned \"credentials absent — fallback unused\"; sinusoidal diurnal-cycle reconstruction was scoped but not needed because the mechanism is daily-Tmax-driven, not hourly-integration-driven. The probe outcome is recorded in the Research Software deposit's results-registry artefact."""; ; ; . sub:assertion prov:wasAttributedTo . 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